School · cohort analysis
School outcomes per generation and arrival age
Arrival age matters: children who arrived before age 7 perform close to native level, while arrival after age 12 is hard to catch up. We track merit value, upper-secondary eligibility, SFI progression and PISA — always with a comparison group.
Sources: Skolverket SIRIS, Skolverket SFI statistics, Skolverket PISA 2022.
Merit value Grade 9 — per generation and arrival age
Average of 17 subjects (max 340). The series shows the gap between native ref and first-generation pupils arriving after age 12 has widened over time.
| Year | Native ref. | Native / one foreign-born | 2nd gen two foreign-born | 1st gen arr. <7 yrs | 1st gen arr. >12 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 207 | 198 | 178 | 188 | 145 |
| 2005 | 212 | 202 | 184 | 193 | 142 |
| 2012 | 218 | 208 | 189 | 198 | 138 |
| 2018 | 235 | 222 | 198 | 210 | 132 |
| 2024 | 232 | 219 | 195 | 208 | 128 |
Eligibility for upper-secondary
Share (%) meeting eligibility for upper-secondary vocational programmes (8 passed subjects).
| Year | Native ref. | 2nd gen | 1st gen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 91 % | 85 % | 65 % |
| 2010 | 89 % | 81 % | 56 % |
| 2016 | 91 % | 80 % | 33 % |
| 2020 | 90 % | 79 % | 39 % |
| 2024 | 89 % | 78 % | 41 % |
SFI progression — Course D within 2/4 years
SFI Course D is the highest level and required for many studies/jobs. Fewer than half complete it within 4 years.
| Start cohort | Completed within 2 yrs | Completed within 4 yrs |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 % | 41 % |
| 2016 | 24 % | 44 % |
| 2018 | 27 % | 47 % |
| 2020 | 28 % | 48 % |
PISA mathematics — per group
Mean score (OECD 2022 avg ≈ 472). First-generation pupils are around 50 points below native ref.
| Year | Native ref. | 2nd gen | 1st gen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 502 | 472 | 421 |
| 2012 | 487 | 458 | 402 |
| 2015 | 502 | 470 | 415 |
| 2018 | 511 | 478 | 422 |
| 2022 | 501 | 467 | 428 |